Releasing on Tuesday, 23 June 2026, we have two notable updates applying to the 12 zones and fuel types covered by our power availability model (see methodology here). All other zones — and any query with a specified provider other than Kpler — are based on reported outages only and are unaffected.
Model recalibration: we have refreshed the weights of our unreported outages model to give greater importance to recent data over older years, making it better calibrated to current market conditions.
Forecast interval: the interval now reflects the minimum and maximum scenarios our model has historically observed for each horizon, replacing the previous ±1 standard deviation approach. This represents our central forecast against the full range of outcomes the model considers plausible. Note that the central curve will not necessarily sit at the midpoint of this interval.
The charts below show, as of 2026-06-17, the current Kpler availability (purple), the updated Kpler availability with its interval (orange), and raw availability as calculated from provider outage data (blue). Alongside these, we have included 2025 backtests comparing both models against actuals (availability as calculated from final published outage data).
