Power availability represents the generation capacity available on the grid after accounting for outages. It is a key indicator of supply conditions, system tightness, and power price formation. Availability is live and reflects the latest outage data at query time.
Kpler provides two availability metrics:
Raw Availability (by fuel type & by unit) — derived from reported outages
Kpler Availability — an enhanced forecast that applies proprietary modeling to account for underreporting and outage behavior
Raw Availability
Raw availability represents the available capacity, computed as:
Availability = Installed Capacity – Unavailability
We provide it at both fuel-type and unit levels.
Fuel-Type Availability
Fuel-type availability follows a top-down approach:
Installed capacity per fuel type is sourced from TSOs, ENTSO-E, and other validated reference datasets.
Valid reported outages are aggregated to construct an unavailability curve.
Availability is derived at the fuel level
Unit-Level Availability
Availability is similarly computed for each generation unit reporting outages.
The availability of a production unit (plant) is calculated as the sum of the availability of its generation units.
This unit-level data can then be aggregated by zone and fuel type to derive a bottom-up view of fuel-type availability.
Note : Fuel-type availability and aggregated unit-level availability for that fuel may not always match exactly. Differences can arise due to smaller generating units (typically below 100 MW) that can't be individually tracked due to missing generation data, outages, or EIC codes.
However, since these units are still accounted for in installed capacity figures used in fuel-type calculations, the sum of unit-level availability may differ from fuel-type availability.
Coverage
Outages are collected from multiple providers - see coverage here. For each unit reporting outages, we build an unavailability curve, from which availability is derived.
Raw availability therefore covers all zones, fuels, and units available in these sources.
Kpler Availability
Kpler Availability is an enhanced availability forecast, available at the fuel-type level.
It builds on raw availability by applying proprietary modeling adjustments designed to account for structural limitations in outage reporting.
Kpler Availability = Raw Availability + Model Adjustments
Unreported Outages
Not all outages are reported in advance, which can lead to overestimated availability.
To address this, we derate the raw availability by applying an unavailability factor based on historical patterns across different horizons.
This produces:
a central estimate
upper and lower bounds (±1σ confidence interval)
Outage Extensions
For the French nuclear fleet, we also adjust the availability forecast for possible outage delays, based on historical behavior. This further reduces of overestimating availability when outages extend beyond their announced end date.
Coverage
Country | Coverage |
🇫🇷 France | Nuclear, Fossil gas |
🇩🇪 Germany | Fossil hard coal, Fossil brown coal/Lignite, Fossil gas |
🇮🇹 Italy | Fossil gas |
🇳🇱 Netherlands | Fossil hard coal |
🇵🇱 Poland | Fossil hard coal |
🇪🇸 Spain | Fossil gas |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Fossil gas, Nuclear |
Kpler Availability vs Raw Availability
The examples below compare raw availability derived from reported outages and Kpler availability forecast (both as of a given date) with the actual availability.
Legend:
Black line solid — Actual availability
Dark blue dashed — Raw availability derived from outages
Light blue band dashed — Kpler availability forecast (central curve + confidence interval)
FR Nuclear - forecasts as of January 1st 2025 (link here)
DE Fossil Hard Coal - forecasts as of June 1st 2025 (link here)
Across both examples, raw availability consistently overestimates capacity, while Kpler availability provides a more accurate forecast.
The confidence interval provides a realistic range of outcomes, especially in forward periods where availability may be over- or under-estimated.
Accessing the data
You can access our availability forecasts through :
Kpler Terminal
Fuel-type availability
Unit availability
Kpler Power API
Using provider=kpler:
If Kpler availability is available (see coverage above), the API returns low, central, and high availability curves
Otherwise, it returns raw availability, selecting the most relevant outage provider from our mapping for the given zone and fuel — central curve only
This endpoint returns all generation and production units for a selected zone and fuel type, along with their availability.