Kpler balance sheets dynamically link supply, demand and trade forecasts to derive a global, forward-looking snapshot of grains and oilseeds markets. Serving as the primary interface for traders, these balance sheets analyse each event's impact on the market, generating fundamental insights that help predict price movements and inform trading decisions for the underlying commodities.
Our supply and demand forecasts are anchored to current market prices, enhancing the alignment of supply with demand and identifying mispriced markets. This methodology not only provides key trading insights but also sets us apart from the USDA, as we do not seek to "balance" ending stocks solely based on availability, but reflect use and exports based on current prices.
Last updated 6 October 2026
Components, country selection and coverage
Supply and demand balance sheets for major exporters
Historical and forecast trade by commodity, exporter, importer and month
Group | Definition | What is published |
Major exporters | Countries that together export over 80% of the commodity | Supply and demand balance sheet tables; monthly historical exports and forecasts by destination |
Minor exporters | Countries that are not major exporters and contribute up to 98% of exports of the commodity | Monthly historical exports and forecasts by destination |
All countries | Countries that import significant quantities of the commodity (~200kt/yr), in addition to exporters | Monthly imports, including forecasts |
S&D methodology
Balances
Area, yield and production are assessed for major exporters using (in order) quantitative models, weather and official information as it becomes available.
Other balance sheet metrics, such as feed consumption, biofuel use and crush, are forecast using quantitative models and continuously updated with actual information once available. Models may use prices, past trends, inter-commodity relationships and demand forecasts.
Trades
Import demand. At the start of coverage, country-wise demand is forecast for all countries and imports are projected. Macroeconomics, trends, local preferences, elasticities and other factors affecting demand are analysed to estimate import demand. The estimate is fine-tuned throughout the year based on actual flows, changes in price and underlying fundamentals.
Allocation. Import demand is fulfilled by allocating quantities from exporting countries monthly. Forward prices are the key metric used to populate trade, but allocation may also be affected by seasonality and technical factors, such as grade preferences and sanctions.
Country balance sheets. Major exporter production and domestic consumption are matched with exports from the trade forecasts to create annual balance sheets at the country level.
Why it matters
The balances are dynamic and continuously updated based on new incoming information, including production, trade and price changes.
Governments and agencies publish balance sheets after the fact. Kpler's detailed bottom-up approach, real-time flows and forward-looking, trading balance sheets bring unique value to users.
The analysis helps users understand the effect of key levers such as weather, policy, sanctions and changes in demand, and the balance sheet's sensitivity to these changes. News, events and updates can be put in context through their effect on the balance sheet.
Year-on-year changes in major exporter stocks have proven to be a key driver of commodity prices. A rigorous bottom-up balance sheet helps users visualise stocks at the end of the year, assess sensitivities, compare them to market assumptions and trade around them.