The Kpler Iron Ore Supply & Demand (S&D) product provides an 18-month rolling forward-looking view of the global iron ore and steel market, using Kpler near real time information combined with market intelligence and other data sources.
The product is delivered front-end on the Terminal as the iron ore monthly report, with add-on Excel download. Historical vintage forecasts are available from April 2025 onwards.
What's covered?
Global seaborne iron ore balance (monthly, from Jan 2021)
Seaborne demand: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Vietnam, EU-27/UK, United States, GCC, Other demand, and global seaborne trade.
Seaborne supply: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Peru, Chile, Sweden (incl. Norway), India, West Africa, South Africa, GCC, Other supply.
Miners' export forecasts (quarterly, from Q1 2021): Rio Tinto (W. Australia), BHP, FMG, MinRes, Vale, CSN, Anglo American (Brazil), Anglo American (S Africa), LKAB, SimFer/BWCS (Simandou – Q4 2025 onwards)
Crude steel production (monthly, from Jan 2025): China, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, EU-27/UK, US.
Iron ore prices (monthly, from Jan 2021): 61%, 62% and 65% Fe China delivered iron ore fines.
Definitions
Seaborne demand represents import flows for the month. The sum of destination-country imports gives the global seaborne trade number.
Seaborne supply is the same import data split by origin country, shown as exports (mirror data). Taking arrivals on both sides means supply and demand reconcile to an identical global total.
Regional groupings: EU-27/UK covers EU-27 plus the United Kingdom. GCC covers Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. West Africa covers Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Others. Sweden (incl. Norway) covers both countries.
Time horizons
Kpler S&D country time series consist of three different time horizons:
1. Historical period
Trade data runs from Jan 2021 to the previous month, from Kpler Flows on the dry platform in million tonnes. Product estimation is on, retaining cargoes with no reported grade. Intra-country flows are excluded; intra-region flows are included, so intra-EU, intra-Asia and intra-GCC trade stays in the total. Vessels in transit take their Kpler predicted destination. Flows are pulled at Iron Ore product-family level, with pig iron, Direct Reduced Iron (DRI), and Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) netted out. Trade history is not routinely restated. Where improved coverage, cargo attribution or commercial information materially changes a past period, the revision is noted in the release.
Crude steel production runs from Jan 2025, from the best public and private sources. Where official data is revised, our history is revised in line; year-ago revisions are fairly common in China.
Prices are China-delivered front month.
2. Nowcast period (Preliminary)
Trade volumes for the two most recent months are pulled in the first three days. Flows keep settling afterwards, so the next report may show a different number for the same month; hence the preliminary tag.
Crude steel production is preliminary for its two most recent months; one further back as reported output lags.
Prices carry no preliminary period.
3. Forecast period
Trade modelling uses a bottom-up approach. Seaborne iron ore demand is built country by country using steel demand/production projections, historical iron ore import trends and analyst projections, with global seaborne trade as their sum. Supply is forecast miner by miner from company guidance, ramp-up schedules and observed shipment rates, then balanced against mirror import trends.
Crude steel production reflects recent country, company and mill trends, capacity changes, regulation and external demand factors.
Prices are modelled basis Chinese imports and wider seaborne demand, seaborne supply, volume gap/surplus, miners' all-in cash costs (Value In Use adjusted), freight, and geopolitical and weather events.
Seasonality is considered across all forecasts.