We're implementing a significant enhancement to our US refined product supply & demand estimates methodology on July 14th that will deliver improved accuracy and alignment with industry standards.
What's Changing
Starting July 14th, Kpler will strengthen how we calculate refinery production across six key product categories: LPG, naphtha, gasoline, jet/kero, gasoil, and fuel oil. This enhancement integrates more closely with Energy Information Administration (EIA) definitions while leveraging our proprietary flow and inventory data.
Key Improvements
Enhanced Precision: Our new methodology provides more granular breakdowns, clearly distinguishing between net production, blending components, and terminal-level redistribution—moving beyond the broader interpretation used previously.
Better Alignment: Stronger integration with EIA's supply-side balancing framework ensures greater consistency with official statistical and operational benchmarks.
Regional Accuracy: Improved clarity in PADD-level flows and terminal-level product balances, with cleaner reconciliation of residual categories and closing stock movements.
Optimized Framework: Enhanced balancing factors across our supply and demand models provide more reliable market insights.
As US refining undergoes structural rationalization and utilization levels remain above historical averages in many states, product flows are becoming increasingly complex. This enhancement ensures our data framework captures these evolving dynamics with the precision and transparency you depend on.
Your Benefit
This upgrade delivers greater analytical confidence and clearer market visibility—critical as refining patterns shift and operational strategies evolve. You'll have access to more accurate, real-world market views that align with both regulatory reporting standards and operational realities.
Please note: this will affect refined product back history. Changes to the history will be implemented on July 14th.