Kpler is dedicated to providing accurate and actionable data to help our clients navigate complex market dynamics. This article details significant updates to our Crude Supply & Demand data that have been released on 3 June 2024.
What is changing
We have revised our future and historic crude demand estimations for some key market, all these revisions are reductions in demand which overall improve our global crude balance. For our Insight subscribers, these changes are further detailed in this month's Crude Oil Global Review.
Algeria
We have lowered Algeria's refinery runs by an average of 140 kbd. This adjustment was made because some condensate volumes in our intake model were reclassified as NGL to align the country calculation better with our global Crude S&D methodology and bring better in line with other countries' data and Jodi numbers
Russia
We have improved our Russian crude balance by including in our S&D model the crude flows toward Belarus via the Druzhba pipeline starting in January 2018. We expect these flows to average around 330 kbd in 2024. At the same time, we have completely removed the country's direct crude use volumes from our crude demand calculation. We now believe these volumes should be classified as crude losses rather than direct crude use, and we expect them to be equivalent to 1% (or 110 kbd per month) of the country's total crude and condensate production. Consequently, these changes have helped decrease the country's balancing factor by approximately 200 kbd monthly.
United Arab Emirates
We have reduced our UAE crude intake estimates by an average of 270 kbd to better align with our understanding of the country's product supply and demand balance. This adjustment is supported by the refined product net export figures tracked on our terminal. We have aligned their condensate processing volumes to domestic condensate production and net imports. Consequently, we have retroactively adjusted refinery runs, applying similar utilization rates to a lower baseline. This results in reduced crude intake projections and an improved crude balancing factor for the country.
Additional changes
Besides these major changes, we also revisited our assumptions for some other countries.
Supply
Canada production was revised up by 50 kbd in Q2 2024, as the TMX pipeline coming online supports even higher output than initially assumed
Chad production was revised higher by 40 kbd on average in 2023 and by 70 kbd in 2024 to mirror our export volumes and IEA data
Niger was added to the S&D, with refinery run levels averaging some 20 kbd and production around 20 kbd from 2017 until this year before ramping up to 100 kbd from October 2024 onward
Demand
Bahrain's refinery runs were reduced by an average of 70 kbd over Q3 and Q4 due to delays in the BAPCO Sitra refinery expansion (92 kbd), which is now expected to see full commissioning in December 2024
Ghana's crude intake has been revised downward due to lower crude imports observed at the Sentuo Refinery lately. The Snow Lotus Suezmax tanker only discharged in May after floating outside the Tema port for four months. We expect the country's throughput to average 12 kbd and reach 40 kbd in Q1 2025
India's refinery runs have been adjusted lower by 160 kbd in April, according to national statistics data. Planned maintenance at several primary and secondary units in July and August prompted us to decrease the country's throughput for those respective months
Iraq's refining outlook was adjusted lower by 100 kbd from May onward as Jodi data continues to show the country's intake hovering around 400 kbd despite IIR indicating higher available refining capacity
Italy's refinery runs were revised lower by 90 kbd in Q2 due to maintenance works, which peaked in May (IIR)
Japan's crude demand estimates for 2024 and 2025 were revised lower due to the recent closure of the 120 kbd CDU at Seibu Oil's Yamaguchi refinery
Taiwan's crude intake has been adjusted downward by 100 kbd over the coming months due to the recent announcement of run cuts and significant maintenance expected in Q2 and Q4.
US revised higher to better align with EIA official weekly data indicating higher refining activity mainly due to lower product level stocks
Venezuela's crude demand outlook was adjusted lower by 100 kbd due to the reimposition of sanctions impacting the country's refining sector. This adjustment is corroborated by our S&D model, which shows the country is well-balanced at current intake levels, and Jodi data indicates the country's refinery runs averaging 270 kbd