02 June 2025 - Crude Inventories Update - China Underground SPR Methodology & Data Integration Overview

Kpler provides estimates for China’s Underground Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). This new integration enhances visibility into the scale of China’s total crude inventories by combining:

Kpler assesses fill levels of unobservable SPRs based on the assumption that these reserves are stored for emergency purposes, with timing inferred from available market intelligence. Such assessment provides users with a clearer picture and more accurate scale of China’s overall crude oil storage.

SPR Facilities Covered and Capacities in this adjustment

Linear Stock Building and Regional Balance Methodologies

Kpler estimates Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fill activities by analyzing excess crude availability at terminal-connected sites using proprietary data from crude and condensate cargo flows, refinery analytics, and observable inventory analytics.

Linear Stock Building Approach - Example: Jintan Underground SPR

For underground SPR facilities located in regions with access to both pipelined crude oil (from domestic and international sources) and seaborne deliveries, Kpler identified potential crude supply routes to underground storage sites. The analysis examined regional crude oil flows, including connections among seaborne import terminals, refineries, and underground storage, as well as pipeline flow directions. Based on this assessment, potential supply paths to facilities—such as the Jintan Underground SPR connected to the Ningbo/Cezixiang area—were mapped. Implied fill levels are then derived by comparing annual crude net imports against a calculated baseline average.

SPR Implied Fill = Annual Crude Imports – Baseline Import Reference

Net Import volumes exceeding the baseline are classified as excess supply, interpreted as SPR-directed flows. At Jintan, such excess volumes totaled approximately 52 Mbbl between 2019 and 2020.

The SPR’s total capacity (15.7 Mbbl) is distributed across these years in proportion to each year’s contribution to the total excess, allowing for the calculation of annual and daily fill rates.

Implied Jintan underground SPR level (kbbl)

Regional Balance Approach

For SPR facilities in a region where no pipelined crude oil from domestic and international sources are available —such as the Huizhou Underground SPR connected to the Huizhou Import Terminal, which supplies both the Huizhou and Guangzhou refineries, implied fill levels are derived by building a regional balance and calculating the volume of excess crude available to the SPR after accounting for refinery throughput and observed stock changes.

SPR Implied Fill =Crude Imports – Refinery Throughputs +/- Stock Changes

The calculation for the implied SPR fill level estimates how much crude oil is being added to or withdrawn from underground storage each week based on observed flows. It starts with weekly crude imports and subtracts estimated refinery runs and the change in above-ground stock levels. The stock change represents how much oil was either added to or withdrawn from visible storage tanks, and is subtracted because it already accounts for part of the imported crude. What remains is the "unexplained" volume, which is assumed to reflect SPR activity.

Implied SPR level methodology

Example 1 : Huizhou Underground SPR

The Huizhou and Guangzhou areas are isolated from other crude delivery networks in China, and there are no domestic production sources in the region. As a result, it is possible to build a regional supply and demand (S&D) model using crude flows, inventories, and refinery analytics to estimate the implied fill level.

Implied Huizhou underground SPR level (kbbl)

Example 2 : Zhanjiang underground SPR level

The Zhanjiang and Maoming areas are isolated from other crude delivery networks in China, and there are no domestic production sources in the region. This makes it possible to build a regional S&D model using crude flows, inventories, and refinery analytics to estimate the implied fill level.

Implied Zhanjiang underground SPR level (kbbl)

By default, the Crude Oil and Condensate inventories product includes Kpler’s estimates and assumptions for unobservable Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) levels. This modeled data is automatically incorporated when viewing inventories linked to :

To remove these assumptions and focus solely on observable inventories, users can:

For more information, please reach out to oil@kpler.com