We are excited to announce an update to our long-term price forecasts, focused on better capturing intraday price spreads, live from the long-term run of Friday, 7 August.
Reflecting the price dynamics we have been observing in the market - wider intraday spreads and more frequent negative-price hours - we have adapted our long-term forecasts to carry these patterns forward. Concretely, the intraday spreads in our forecasts are now increased, and reflect underlying supply and demand dynamics more accurately. This update is about the shape of the curve within the day, rather than its overall level, which remains similar.
Because the intraday shape of our Power Price Forward Curves is anchored in our fundamental-driven long-term forecast, the forward curves are refined by the same update. They continue to be consistent with futures market prices.
For reference, below is the German hourly long-term price forecast highlighting the existing vs. the new version, where you can see the wider spread in the new version. This uses mean weather years (average of 2011 to 2025) as a specific historical weather year will show even more spread. Price levels remain largely consistent with the previous forecast; if you would like to see the level comparison for additional markets, or spreads for other zones, please feel free to let us know.
