The following table presents a high-level summary of the data sources and key input variables that underpin Kpler Insight’s bottom-up natural gas models. The modelling framework draws on a comprehensive set of country-level and sector-specific datasets designed to capture the primary drivers of natural gas market dynamics. For more information, please reach out to insight@kpler.com.
Country | Dataset | Data Sources | Key Regression Input Variables |
Argentina | Power Sector Gas Demand | Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas, Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Meteostat | HDDs/CDDs, El Niño/La Niña, hydro generation, fuel oil/diesel usage |
Argentina | Residential & Commercial Demand | Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas, Meteostat | HDDs/CDDs, seasonality, El Niño/La Niña, ENARSA LNG tenders |
Argentina | Industrial Gas Demand | Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas, Meteostat | HDDs/CDDs, seasonality |
Argentina | Other Gas Demand | Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas, Meteostat | HDDs/CDDs, seasonality |
Argentina | Pipeline Gas Exports (Brazil, Chile, Uruguay) | Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas | Seasonality, pipeline expansions, pipeline contracts, natural gas production |
Argentina | Pipeline Gas Imports (Bolivia, Chile) | Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas | Seasonality, pipeline expansions, pipeline contracts, natural gas production |
Argentina | Domestic Gas Production | Ministry of Economy (Energy Secretariat), upstream companies | Seasonality, pipeline expansions, drilling activity, domestic demand |
Bahrain | Power Sector Gas Demand | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Meteostat | Seasonality, CDDs, Refinery capacity |
Bahrain | Non-power Sector Gas Demand | Joint Organizations Data Initiative | Seasonality, Alba smelter capacity, Outages at Alba, seasonality, Sitra refinery capacity |
Bahrain | Domestic Gas Production | Joint Organizations Data Initiative | Seasonality, in-house decline analysis |
Bangladesh | Industrial Gas Demand | Petrobangla, Energy and Mineral Resources Division | Industrial activity |
Bangladesh | Power Sector Gas Demand | Petrobangla | Gas-fired capacity, CDD, Asian spot LNG prices |
Bangladesh | Domestic Gas Production | Petrobangla, Hydrocarbon Unit | Domestic production, field performance |
Brazil | Residential & Commercial Gas Demand | Ministério de Minas e Energia | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs |
Brazil | Power Sector Gas Demand | Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico, Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica, Meteostat | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, hydro-in-storage levels, renewables generation, LNG contracts, power contracts |
Brazil | Industrial Gas Demand | Ministério de Minas e Energia | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, hydro generation, renewables generation, natural gas production |
Brazil | Other Gas Demand | Ministério de Minas e Energia | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs |
Brazil | Domestic Gas Production | Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis | Drilling activity, upstream/pipeline maintenance, pipeline capacity, new field development |
Brazil | Pipeline Gas Imports (Bolivia, Argentina) | Ministério de Minas e Energia | Seasonality, pipeline contracts |
China | Residential & Commercial Gas Demand | National Bureau of Statistics, National Development and Reform Commission, China Meteorological Administration | HDDs/CDDs, temperature anomalies, gas prices |
China | Industrial Gas Demand | National Bureau of Statistics, National Development and Reform Commission, Commercial Vehicle World | Kpler Insight Industrial Tracker, industrial production, PMI, truck sales |
China | Power Sector Gas Demand | National Energy Administration, National Bureau of Statistics | Power demand, renewable generation, hydro availability, coal-to-gas switching |
China | Domestic Gas Production | National Bureau of Statistics | Provincial level gas production, upstream maintenance, unconventional gas output, five-year plan gas production targets |
China | Pipeline Imports | Customs | Pipeline flows, capacity, maintenance, utilization rates, contract volumes, import prices |
Colombia | Power Sector Gas Demand | Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia, Compañía Expertos en Mercados, Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos, Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética | Hydro generation, seasonality, coal generation, El Niño/La Niña, renewables generation, domestic production, HDD/CDDs, domestic production |
Colombia | Residential & Commercial Gas Demand | Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia, Compañía Expertos en Mercados, Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos, Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética | Domestic production, El Niño/La Niña, seasonality, renewables generation, CDD/HDDs |
Colombia | Industrial Gas Demand | Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia, Compañía Expertos en Mercados, Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos, Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética | Domestic production, El Niño/La Niña, seasonality, renewables generation, CDD/HDDs, Strike/outages, coal burns, oil production |
Colombia | Other Gas Demand | Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia, Compañía Expertos en Mercados, Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos, Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética | Seasonality, El Niño/La Niña, domestic production, renewables generation, oil production, refinery runs |
Colombia | Domestic Gas Production | Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos, Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia, Ecopetrol | Oil production, upstream development plans |
Dominican Republic | Power Sector Gas Demand | Oficina Nacional de Estadística, Sistema Eléctrico Nacional Interconectado | Seasonality, power generation capacity by technology, Henry Hub, Brent and TTF price forecasts, outages, El Niño/La Niña, Asian LNG prices |
Dominican Republic | Industrial Gas Demand | Oficina Nacional de Estadística | Seasonality, El Niño/La Niña, TTF, Asian LNG prices and Brent price forecasts |
Dominican Republic | Other Gas Demand | Oficina Nacional de Estadística | Seasonality, El Niño/La Niña, TTF, Asian LNG prices and Brent price forecasts. |
Egypt | Power Sector Gas Demand | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Meteostat | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, GDP, regas buildout, fuel oil imports, LNG tenders |
Egypt | Non-power Sector Gas Demand | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Meteostat | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, GDP, regas buildout, demand management, LNG tenders |
Egypt | LNG Feedgas Demand | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Kpler | Seasonality, agreements between Egypt and upstream players |
Egypt | Domestic Gas Production | Joint Organizations Data Initiative | Field-level production data from operators, in-house by-field forecasts |
Egypt | Pipeline Gas Imports | Joint Organizations Data Initiative | Seasonality, upstream maintenance in Israel, pipeline flow curtailments, pipeline expansion, Israeli upstream expansions |
EU-27 | Domestic Gas Production | Eurostat | Domestic production, new gas fields |
EU-27 | Pipeline Gas Imports | ENTSOG, Kpler European Gas | Seasonality, maintenance, upstream gas availability |
Great Britain | Power Sector Gas Demand | Kpler European Gas, Kpler Power | Renewable generation (solar, wind), HDDs/CDDs (population-weighted at the country and city-level), gas prices, Kpler Power probabilistic weather forecasts |
Great Britain | Distribution demand | Kpler European Gas, Kpler Power | HDDs/CDDs (population-weighted at the country and city-level), temperature forecasts, gas prices, Kpler Power probabilistic weather forecasts |
Great Britain | Industrial Gas Demand | Kpler European Gas, Kpler Power | HDDs/CDDs (population-weighted at the country and city-level), temperature forecasts, gas prices, Kpler Power probabilistic weather forecasts |
India | Fertilizer Gas Demand | Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell | Urea production capacity, LNG prices |
India | City Gas Distribution Demand | Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell | Residential & commercial demand, transport demand, domestic gas prices, CDD |
India | Industrial Gas Demand | Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell | Industrial production, Asian spot LNG price competitiveness |
India | Power Sector Gas Demand | Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell, Central Electricity Authority | Coal price index, Renewables production, Asian spot LNG prices |
India | Domestic Gas Production | Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell | Domestic production, offshore output |
Japan | Residential & Commercial Gas Demand | Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Gas, Japan Meteorological Agency | HDDs/CDDs, temperature forecasts |
Japan | Industrial Gas Demand | Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Gas | Industrial production, manufacturing activity |
Japan | Power Sector Gas Demand | Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Power, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Hatsudensho Joho Kokai System | Nuclear availability, renewable output, power demand |
Japan | LNG Storage | Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry | Inventory levels, days cover, stock changes |
Kuwait | Power Sector Gas Demand | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Ministry of Electricity and Water, Meteostat | Seasonality, gas-fired power generation capacity, CDD/HDDs, LNG regas capacity |
Kuwait | Non-power Sector Gas Demand | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Meteostat | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, LNG contracts, GDP growth, domestic gas production |
Kuwait | Domestic Gas Production | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Kpler | Seasonality, oil production, Jurassic gas field capacity, Jurassic oil field capacity, Brent price forecast |
NWE*, SE** | Power Sector Gas Demand | Kpler Power, Meteostat, ENTSOG, *Enagas (Spain only) | Total power demand, renewable generation (solar, hydro, wind, nuclear, coal), CDD,HDDs (population-weighted at the country and city-level), gas prices, spark spread, Kpler Power probabilistic weather forecasts |
NWE*, SE** | Distribution demand | Kpler Power, Meteostat, ENTSOG, *Enagas (Spain only) | Total power demand, HDDs/CDDs (population-weighted at the country and city-level), non-working days, gas prices, Kpler Power probabilistic weather forecasts |
NWE*, SE** | Industrial Gas Demand | Kpler Power, Kpler Insight, Eurostat, Meteostat, ENTSOG, *ODRE (France only), **Enagas (Spain only) | Total power demand, HDDs/CDDs (population-weighted at the country and city-level), industrial economic indexes, naphtha cracks, GDP growth, gas prices, non-working days, Kpler Power probabilistic weather forecasts |
Pakistan | Industrial Gas Demand | Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority, State Bank of Pakistan | Industrial output, Fertilizer index, gas allocation, Asian spot LNG prices, seasonality |
Pakistan | Power Sector Gas Demand | Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority | Generation by fuel, power demand, CDD, Asian spot LNG prices, seasonality |
Rest of EU-27*** | Total Gas Consumption | Eurostat, Meteostat | HDDs/CDDs (population-weighted at the country and city-level) |
Singapore | Power Sector Gas Demand | Electricity Market Authority, Energy Market Company | Power demand, gas-fired generation |
Singapore | Pipeline Gas Imports | Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Electricity Market Authority | Imports from Indonesia and Malaysia, utilization rates |
South Korea | Residential & Commercial Gas Demand | Korea Energy Statistical Information System, Korea Meteorological Administration | HDDs/CDDs, temperature forecasts |
South Korea | Industrial Gas Demand | Korea Energy Statistical Information System | Industrial production, manufacturing activity |
South Korea | Power Sector Gas Demand | Korea Power Exchange, Korea Hydro Nuclear Power | Nuclear outages, coal maintenance, renewable generation |
South Korea | LNG Storage | Korea Energy Statistical Information System | Inventory levels, storage utilization |
Taiwan | Industrial Gas Demand | Ministry of Economic Affairs Gas | Industrial output, semiconductor activity |
Taiwan | Power Sector Gas Demand | Ministry of Economic Affairs Power, Taipower | Power demand, renewable generation, outages |
Thailand | Industrial Gas Demand | Energy Policy & Planning Office Gas | Manufacturing activity, CDD, GDP |
Thailand | Power Sector Gas Demand | Energy Policy & Planning Office Power, Egat | Power demand, renewable generation, coal and hydro availability, CDD |
Thailand | Domestic Gas Production | Energy Policy & Planning Office | Domestic production, MTJDA output |
Thailand | Pipeline Gas Imports | Energy Policy & Planning Office | Imports from Myanmar |
Türkiye | LNG Imports | Kpler | Historical flows, fallout available to Europe |
United States | Domestic Production | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, drilling activity, Henry Hub prices, pipeline maintenance, demand, winter temperatures |
United States | Pipeline Imports (Canada), Pipeline Imports (Mexico) | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, drilling activity, Henry Hub prices, pipeline maintenance, demand, CDD/HDDs |
United States | Pipeline Exports (Canada), Pipeline Exports (Mexico) | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, drilling activity, Henry Hub prices, pipeline maintenance, demand, CDD/HDDs |
United States | Gas Supply (Other) | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, drilling activity, Henry Hub prices, pipeline maintenance, demand, Kpler LNG data |
United States | Power Demand | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, renewables generation, Henry Hub prices |
United States | Industrial Demand | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, renewables generation, Henry Hub prices |
United States | Residential-Commercial Demand | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, HDD/CDDs, renewables generation, Henry Hub prices |
United States | LNG Feedgas Demand | Energy Information Administration | Seasonality, plant maintenance, pipeline maintenance, in-house ramp-up/utilization assumptions |
United States | Lease and Plant Fuel | Energy Information Administration | Demand, production |
United States | Pipeline Distribution | Energy Information Administration | Demand, production |
*NWE: North-West Europe = GER, FRA, NLD, BEL
**SE: South Europe = ESP, ITA, POR
***Rest of EU-27 = POL, GRE, LTU, HVR, FIN, MLT, SWE