Overview
Kpler's Supply & Demand Biofuels provides a detailed picture of the balances of all countries in Europe, using Kpler near real time information combined with market intelligence and various other data sources.
What's covered?
32 European countries (EU-27 plus UK, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine)
All main biofuels:
FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) – also named biodiesel, blended with diesel or used directly as fuel in road transportation
HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) – also named renewable diesel. As we start from European picture, we are using name used in Europe, as opposed to the USA, where Renewable Diesel (RD) is used, blended with diesel or used directly as fuel in road transportation
SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) – also named biojet, blended with jet fuel
Ethanol (ETOH) – blended with gasoline.
The products view is split per group of feedstocks used for their production:
SC – single counting - food and feed crop-based feedstocks, but also those derived from crops or animal waste but counting single against the mandatory blending (non-Annex IX*)
9A - feedstocks listed in Part A of Annex IX, predominantly waste materials and residues, which are eligible for double counting, also called advanced waste feedstocks.
9B - feedstocks listed in Part B of Annex IX (mainly used cooking oil and animal fats) which, which are eligible for double counting
Kpler S&D country time series consist of three different time horizon:
1.Historical period
The historical period encompasses data from Jan 2017 to today less than 3 months approximately in case of demand, and until the previous year in case of supply. For each country, the best data sources (public and private) are used.
2. Nowcast period
Supply - Production: For each country, the best data sources (public and private) are used in our Sudep model to nowcast the lagging months in public/private reported data. The model is built based on the production units capacity and their running rates, taking into account margin picture and feedstocks availability.
Demand - Blending and direct use: For each country, the best data sources (public and private) are used in our Sudep model to nowcast the lagging months in public/private reported data. The model is built based on the underlying fossil fuel demand (whether it is road or aviation fuel) and the mandates in force, taking into account market behaviour.
3. Forecast period
Supply - Production: the model is built based on the production units capacity and their running rates, taking into account margin outlook and feedstocks projected availability.
Demand - Blending and direct use: The model is built based on the underlying fossil fuel demand projections (whether it is road or aviation fuel) and the mandates in force or projected, taking into account market behaviour.
The current version does not include biofuels used in the marine sector as per FuelEU maritime initiative. We plan to add it in the following updates.