We are excited to introduce Tonnage Supply, a powerful freight analytics feature designed to help trading and shipping professionals better anticipate freight rate volatility.
Introducing Tonnage Supply
Tonnage supply is a new freight analytical feature that enables the user to compare the number of potential vessels available during a specific future time window, in a specific region, with the number of vessels that were potentially available for a similar query in the past. This feature empowers users to make more informed decisions by leveraging historical data and predictive analytics.
This feature is part of the freight analytics module in Kpler terminal and it is available for the entire relevant fleet (bulkers, tankers and gas carriers) irrespective of the cargo carried by the vessel.
What are the benefits
Understanding & Anticipating Freight Rate Volatility
Freight rates are subject to constant fluctuations due to several factors:
Cyclicality: Market cycles impacting supply and demand.
Seasonality: Events like grain harvest time, winter fuel demand, and summer holiday logistics.
Random shocks and news: Unpredictable events that disrupt market conditions.
Understanding these volatilities is crucial for shipping and trading players looking to hedge risks and optimize freight strategies.
How does it work
Tonnage Supply enables users to:
Compare the number of available vessels in a specific future time window against historical availability.
Assess whether more or fewer vessels are ballasting to particular regions, directly influencing supply-demand dynamics.
Overlay freight rate data with historical vessel trends to make more strategic chartering and trading decisions.
With the Tonnage Supply feature, the user can simultaneously leverage historical data and predictive analytics to anticipate rate volatility and assess vessel supply impact.
Example Use Case:
As of mid-February, a trader analyzing the USG to UKC route wants to evaluate historical tanker supply in the region, focusing on the Port Houston within a 7 to 14-day laycan window. They seek to determine whether the tonnage supply—the number of ballasting tankers—has increased or decreased during the same period over the past two years.
By identifying past supply trends for tankers in Houston at this specific time of year, the user can combine this data with historical freight rates to assess its impact on freight rates for this route.
The Tonnage Supply feature enables the trader to anticipate market fluctuations and hedge against potential freight rate spikes or declines.
Methodology: How Tonnage Supply Works
The Tonnage Supply feature is powered by our vessel matcher methodology, which utilizes a combination of precomputed ocean grid data and Elastic Search*.
Here’s how it works:
Grid-based Travel Estimation: We precompute traveling distances between each pair of grid cells across the ocean.
Zone Estimation: Using a vessel matcher algorithm, we estimate which zones are reachable from a port, installation, or vessel based on ETA and average speed.
Historical Data Lookup: We leverage elastic search to find past vessel positions within the grid, allowing users to compare vessel availability across different timeframes.
By following this methodology, Tonnage Supply provides valuable insights into vessel movement patterns, helping users forecast future availability.
*Elastic search is a powerful search and analytics tool that quickly finds, organizes, and analyzes large amounts of data in real-time, making it ideal for tracking trends, searching records, and gaining insights efficiently.