Since 23 July, all confirmed Yanbu loadings have involved vessels operating without continuous AIS coverage. This limits visibility at the point of loading and increases the time required to confirm individual cargoes.

The shift follows the Houthis’ 20 July declaration of a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, under which the group warned vessels carrying Saudi-linked cargoes through the Bab el-Mandeb. The threat was followed by a series of Houthi threats and claimed attacks against Saudi-linked interests.

Whether or not every individual claim can be verified, the operational response is visible. A growing share of tankers associated with Saudi West Coast exports are spending extended periods without transmitting AIS signals.

Yanbu and Red Sea Crude Loadings (excluding Sudan and Egypt), split by loading status

Source: Kpler

This does not mean the cargoes disappear from Kpler’s tracking. In many cases, a vessel later reappears with a higher reported draught after having been dark for several days. A positive draught change indicates that the vessel has loaded crude during the offline period.

What it does not establish on its own is the exact loading terminal or crude grade.

Where continuous AIS coverage, satellite imagery or direct port intelligence are unavailable, cargoes that strongly point to Yanbu cannot immediately be assigned there with the same confidence as conventional loadings. Optical satellite coverage is further constrained by the US mandate on delayed imagery release, which also applies to this part of the Red Sea.

Kpler therefore combines several signals, including vessels’ last known positions, time spent offline, draught changes and subsequent routes. SAR imagery can provide additional vessel detection in absence of optical imagery and AIS gaps, while monitoring of Yanbu crude tank levels provides another signal on terminal activity.

Over 10 recent cargoes fit this pattern: the evidence points to a plausible Saudi Red Sea loading, but is not sufficient for firm Yanbu attribution, so they currently sit under the broader Red Sea origin.

That being said, when tracking Saudi West Coast crude output, a Yanbu-only view may temporarily understate actual activity. The clearest current read is to combine confirmed Yanbu loadings with potential Saudi cargoes classified under Red Sea using the following:

This provides the clearest view of Saudi-origin crude moving from the Red Sea, including volumes potentially linked to Yanbu that remain unresolved due to offline activity. Excluding Egypt and Sudan removes unrelated regional volumes.

To include volumes moving domestically, to Jizan Refinery, Shoaiba, Rabigh, and Shuqaiq, simply toggle ‘Include intra-country flows’.

Yanbu and Red Sea Crude Exports, excluding Egypt & Sudan

Source: Kpler